Week 11 Love/Hate

Fantasy football is different world. Don't think so? Start talking fantasy football to someone who has never played before. You look a little crazy. I have to do a senior research project at Penn State for in order to complete my degree, so I chose to study and research the language and dehumanization that fantasy football creates, but that's not the point with all of this. 

The point is, we live in or own little world - our jargon, our passion, our technology dependence. It's interesting to look at the broader picture and try to see us through the eyes of those who don't share our interests. My brain is filled with weird stats and rankings, while others don't even know the names of some of the teams. 

These upcoming weeks will determine whether some fantasy teams make it to the playoffs or whether you are ridiculed by your friends, co-workers, or family members. I guess, what I'm trying to say is that, remember, this is a game. It's a competitive one, but one that we, ultimately, don't have much control over. Have fun. Relax. If you win, congrats, brag until next year, but if you lose, don't make excuses. Take the trash talk and draft better next year.

Now, here is my love/hate list for Week 11.

Quarterbacks:

Derek Carr, QB (OAK):

How can you not be impressed by the Raiders offense this year? Carr ranks in the top 10 in quarterback play, Michael Crabtree ranks 14th and Amari Cooper ranks 17th in wide receiver play, respectively. Raiders are ranked top 10 in overall in yards per game, total points scored, and points per game. Carr faces the 30th ranked Lions defense, who have allowed at least 17 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in every game this year.

Matthew Stafford, QB (DET):

How about the other side of the football? Facing Derek Carr and the Raiders is Stafford and the Lions. If there was ever a time to be confident in Detroit, it's now. They beat the Packers on the road last week for the first time since 1991. Typically, a writer would insert popular fads and pop culture influences that were popular during that time period, but, I WASN'T EVEN BORN YET. Anyway, no, Stafford hasn't looked great this year. But, he is what he is. And that's a streaky, inconsistent quarterback. His confidence should be high after lasts weeks win, and he faces the 26th ranked Raiders defense. As long as Stafford doesn't throw near Charles Woodson and his league leading five interceptions, he should be fine.

If you need to roll the dice: 

Case Keenum: Faces the 31st ranked Raven defense who have allowed 11 passing touchdowns in the last five games.

Marcus Mariota: Prime time football - faces the Jaguars who have allowed 10 passing touchdowns in the last four games.

Running Backs:

Charcandrick West, RB (KC):

Chark. Chark-nado. Char-mander. Take your pick of the nicknames. You take the nicknames and I'll take the fantasy players. Three straight starts and West has put up 18, 17, 27 fantasy points, respectively. He has four touchdowns in three games, he plays for the run-heavy Andy Reid, and he plays the Chargers who rank dead last in defending the run. I can see Char-mander West evolve into Char-izard West.

Lamar Miller, RB (MIA):

Tony Romo returns for the Dallas Cowboys and I'm sure the Miami Dolphins would love nothing more than to take the wind right out of those sails. Dallas ranks 30th in defending the run and Miller has seven touchdowns in five games. Jay Ajayi has been cutting into Miller's workload, but it hasn't affected Miller's production. It's Miller Time in Week 11.

If you need to roll the dice:

Karlos Williams: Facing the third ranked Patriots defense, but Williams has a touchdown in every game that he has played in. I think New England will be ahead this week, giving Williams a little more running rooms.

Wide Receivers:

Mike Evans, WR (TB):

Evans has eight catches in three of his last four games. In those three games, he has at least 126 receiving yards. Vincent Jackson is out again in Week 11, making Evans the overwhelming primary receiver in Tampa. He also plays an Eagles defense that is 29th against wide receivers, which doesn't hurt.

Stevie Johnson, WR (SD):

Johnson is the new number one wide receiver for Phillip Rivers, who ranks second in passing yards this season. In his first game with that title, he had seven catches for 68 yards - decent numbers - but he was also tackled within the 5-yard line, preventing an extra six points, which would have made a successful fantasy week. San Diego faces the Kansas City Chiefs who rank dead last in defending receivers.

If you need to roll the dice:

Jordan Matthews: Mark Sanchez takes over at quarterback for the Eagles and last year, when Sanchez was the quarterback, Matthews had five touchdowns for nearly 600 yards in six games. 

Sammy Watkins: Buffalo plays the Patriots, who are ranked 28th in defending the pass. Buffalo will presumably be behind in this game, giving Watkins even more targets.

Tight Ends:

Eric Ebron, TE (DET):

The winner of "Which Tight End plays the Raiders this week is?" Eric Ebron. The Raiders have allowed a touchdown to a Tight End in every game but one this year. Tight Ends facing the Raiders have only scored single-digit fantasy points twice this year. This is the most favorable match-up Ebron will have all year, and he averages five targets per game.

Julius Thomas, TE (JAX):

Thomas faces the Titans who have been beaten into the ground by Tight Ends in recent weeks. In Week 9, the Saints torched the Titans defense for eight catches, 82 yards, and two touchdowns and in Week 10, the Panther Tight Ends had 11 catches for 102 yards and a touchdown. Thomas hasn't been anywhere near as productive as he had been in recent years, but if there was ever a week to show his old self, it's this week.

Start/Sit

It's been a crazy fantasy season, huh? If you don't believe me, go to your waiver wire and see how many players are at the told of that list with the "IR" designation next to their name. Top-tier guys have been dropping like flies since the preseason (hopefully you drafted late and didn't suffer with choosing Jordy Nelson or Kelvin Benjamin).
Nobody's have turned into somebody's and 1st round draft picks have been a bust. But, hey, it's a season-long game for a reason, right? Strategy and waiver-wire pickups are critical. This column is dedicated to the questions I have either been asked personally or questions I have seen asked around on Twitter about people cautious about playing certain players:

Russell Wilson or Blake Bortles

Bortles currently ranks at the 10th best fantasy football QB in the NFL. Wilson sits at 16. Wilson has
one game where he has thrown for more than one touchdown. Bortles has six such games. Wilson has failed to throw for 300 yards in a game this year. Bortles has done it in three of his last four. I know what you're saying: "But Russell Wilson gets a lot of his points from running the ball." Well, Wilson has yet to score a rushing touchdown yet this year and he has only topped 50 rushing yards twice. Seattle runs the ball, plain and simple. I'm starting Bortles this week, and I'm starting him with confidence against the 31st ranked Baltimore defense.



TJ Yeldon, Jordan Matthews, or Willie Snead in the FLEX

This one is tough. Yeldon has the worst matchup, but even against tough run defenses, Yeldon has put up double-digit fantasy points.
I'm not entirely sold on Matthews because the 41-yard touchdown in overtime account for 10 of Matthews' 19 fantasy points. Without it, he would have put up nine points, which would have been his third best point total of the year.
Snead didn't practice Thursday which scares me, so I'm starting Yeldon this week, even though he faces the 10th ranked defense against the run in Baltimore.



Doug Martin, Tavon Austin, or Jordan Reed in the FLEX

Tavon Austin rushed the ball eight times last week, eight! He's a wide receiver! He's certainly seeing

an increase in touches since Todd Gurley came onto the scene, so his value is boom-or-bust. With Austin, you're going to get 20+ points or seven.
Jordan Reed is back and ready to face the worst pass defense in the league, the New Orleans Saints and he has three touchdowns in the last two games.
Martin plays the 31st ranked run defense, the Dallas Cowboys. Martin hasn't been nearly as good as he was for his three week stretch of being the 'Doug'ernaut, but if there ever was a week to return to form, it's against the Cowboys. He fumbled last week and was put into the doghouse for the rest of the first half, but I look for the Buccaneers to go run-heavy this game and hopefully that spells a near 20-touch game for Martin.



CJ Anderson, Willie Snead, or Dorial Green-Beckham

CJ Anderson's names being mentioned on this blog again?! Yes, he has returned. Well, his name that is. Anderson is nowhere near the form he was in last year. He has shown sparks, but that role will never be the same with the timeshare between he and Ronnie Hillman. Anderson faces the 9th ranked rushing defense in Kansas City, so I'm steering clear of any Broncos running back this week.
Green-Beckham has huge upside the rest of the season and is certainly worth a bench spot, but going against the 6th ranked Panthers defense doesn't bode well for the Titans.
As I mentioned before, Snead didn't practice Thursday, so his health needs to be monitored, but if he plays, plug him in. Snead is the favorite wide receiver of Drew Brees and that alone means quality fantasy production. I think Washington vs. New Orleans will be a shoot out, so I think Snead had high upside to score if he plays. If he's held out, I would play Green-Beckham and hope for the big play from the six-foot-five-inch receiver.

Week 9 Fill-Ins and Pick-ups

This past weekend was an injury-riddled one. It's the unfortunate part of the game, but injuries happen and they seem to come in bunches. This past weekend we saw like likes of LeVeon Bell, Steve Smith Sr, and Keenan Allen suffer season-ending injuries. We also saw Matt Forte go down with a knee injury that will presumably sideline him for multiple weeks.
Those injuries to key players as well as the the heaviest bye week of the season (six teams are in a bye), have left holes in many fantasy teams. Waiver's are done for the week, so now you're left to choose from free agency. This is a list of players who's stock is on the rise as they look to cement a role for themselves going forward. These players make great bye-week fill-ins and deserve a spot on your bench going forward.

QUARTERBACKS

Jameis Winston (TB)

Currently ranked as the 18th quarterback, Winston hasn't thrown an interception or lost a fumble in his last three games. He has four touchdowns over that span as well. He has yet to score under 12 fantasy points in a match-up and going against the 28th ranked New York Giants in Week 9 makes Winston a strong QB2. If you typically start Carson Palmer or Russel Wilson, two QB's who on a bye this week, look for Winston in free agency. He is owned in 28% of leagues

Jay Cutler (CHI)

In his last four games, Cutler has finished with 17, 17, 19 and 19 fantasy points. Over that span he has six touchdowns, two interceptions, and one fumble. Since the return of Alshon Jeffery, Cutler has been in rare form and with the absence of Matt Forte in upcoming weeks, I look for Cutler to bare the load of the offense. Going against the 17th ranked San Diego Chargers, who have given up nearly 30 points per game, I look for Cutler to continue his fantasy success.

RUNNING BACKS

Jeremy Langford (CHI)

If you pay attention to fantasy football, there were two players who were sought after on waiver's this week: DeAngelo Williams and Jeremy Langford. Williams, now owned in over 90% of leagues, was the number one pickup of the week, but Langford is only owned in 73% of leagues. With Forte out, Langford will be the bellcow back. San Diego is ranked dead last against the run, so if there ever was an opportunity for Langford to succeed, it's this week.

Kendall Gaskins (SF)

San Francisco is a fantasy football disaster right now. Their starting running back is hurt. Their number two running back is hurt. They just traded their number one tight end. Their benching their starting quarterback. It's a mess. Gaskins is only owned in 3% of leagues, but he should see the increased workload that comes with a starting running back. I can't see the 49ers putting the offense on the shoulder of Blaine Gabbert, so I look for Head Coach Jim Tomsula to emphasize the rushing attack. The problem is, they face Atlanta, who is only 26th against the run, but if Atlanta gets up early, the run game will be abandoned. Proceed with heavy amount of caution.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Stevie Johnson, WR (SD)

Owned in 53% of leagues, Johnson is now the #1 receiver in Sand Diego. With Keenan Allen going through emergency kidney surgery, Johnson becomes the star wide out in a productive San Diego offense. Phillip Rivers is the leader in passing yards. That's how San Diego moves the ball and I don't see that changing anytime soon. Johnson faces the Chicago Bears defense, who ranks 27th against the pass. Johnson should be a low-end WR2 going forward.

Tavon Austin, WR (STL)

Austin, typically a boom-or-bust kind of player, has been much more boom lately. With the emergence of Todd Gurley, Austin has had open field to work with. Owned in 57% of leagues, Austin has produced four touchdowns in his last four games, averaging 15 points per game. He gets about five to seven touches per game, but for a player like Austin, that's enough to get him into open space and into the endzone.

TIGHT ENDS

Jacob Tamme, TE (ATL)


Tamme is only owned in 18% of leagues. He's currently the 16th ranked TE. He has seen more looks as of late - probably because Roddy White and Leonard Hankerson have fallen through the cracks. He has had three games of 77 yards or more and last week he posted a 10 catch, 103 yard, 1 touchdown performance. With Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman taking so many looks, the open of the field is wide open for Tamme.

Vernon Davis, TE (DEN)

He went from 2-6 to 7-0 with one phone call. He also went from being owned in 14% of leagues to being owned in 50% of leagues, all because of Peyton Manning. Davis is a risk-reward TE2. He is easily the most athletic TE the Broncos have on their roster, but don't let the hype fool you. Davis still has to learn the playbook, get his timing with Peyton, and prove his worth to the aging quarterback. Superstars are plentiful in Denver right now, but are there enough targets to go around?