Friday, October 30, 2015

Trying to win the big bucks

You've seen them. I know you have.
You know, those commercials that say they are giving out $2 million this year for fantasy football? Those commercials that are on during every break...of every sports show...of every channel?
Draft Kings! Yes, Draft Kings! The daily fantasy league where you can choose a new team every week! *I am not a paid spokesperson for Draft Kings, but if they ask really nicely, I'm sure I could squeeze them in.*

If you're unfamiliar with how this works, it's rather simple:
- Make an account on Draft Kings
- Pay the league fee
- Choose your team

The catch is that, when you pay the league fee, you are given a "$50,000" limit. Each player is worth a certain amount of money - the better the player, the more he is worth. You have to create a roster of players that is under the $50,000 salary cap. Rather than just picking the best players, you have to play the match-ups and find guys who might not be in the upper echelon of their respective position, but who are going to have a good week. FYI: Draft Kings is a PPR (points per reception) setting. They also don't use a kicker, sorry, Jeff Reed.

So, here is my roster this week:

QB: Matthew Stafford, DET            $5,800

Stafford faces the Kansas City Chiefs who are ranked 23rd against the pass. With six touchdowns and one interception in the last two weeks, while averaging 330 yards per game, I look for Stafford to continue his success against what has turned out to be a less-then-stellar Chiefs secondary.

RB: Todd Gurley, STL                      $6,300

The man can't be stopped, simple as that. And this week he plays the San Francisco 49'ers who are ranked 28th against the run. SIGN. ME. UP.

RB: Chris Johnson, ARI                 $4,600

Johnson faces the 30th ranked run defense of the Cleveland Browns - a team who just let Todd Gurley rush for 128 yards and two touchdowns. I'm not saying Johnson and Gurley are of the same athletic ability, at least not anymore, but Johnson has proved spry in his old age and looks to continue his dominant season.

WR: Calvin Johnson, DET                $7,900

Personally, I like to double up on quarterback, wide receiver combos on Draft Kings. Calvin Johnson is the most expensive player on this list, but that match-up is just too good to pass on. Kansas City is ranked dead last against the pass and Megatron is due for a monstrous game. I see a big game on the horizon for Mr. Megatron.

WR: Keenan Allen, SD                       $7,700

Allen faces the Baltimore Ravens, ranked 31st against the pass. He has had his share of success, catching double digit passes in three of the seven games so far this season. He is easily the #1 target of Philip Rivers, especially with Antonio Gates injured again.

WR: Stefon Diggs, MIN                      $4,800

Dirt cheap! Diggs has double digit points in two straight weeks - 13 catches, 237 yards and one touchdown in both combined - and looks to be the favorite of Teddy Bridgewater. He faces the Chicago Bears who are ranked 23rd against the pass and are susceptible to the deep pass.

TE: Tyler Eifert, CIN                            $5,300

He faces the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers rank 29th overall against the tight end position. Eifert has six touchdowns in six games and I don't see him slowly down against the Steelers.

FLEX: Jonathan Stewart, CAR          $4,100

Stewart has had 20 carries or more in each of the last two games and has had double digit fantasy points in each. Carolina is depending on his as the workhorse and he's finally starting to roll. He faces the Indianapolis Colts, who just gave up three touchdowns on the ground to the New Orleans Saints last week and rank 26th against the run.

D/ST: Rams                                           $3,200

The Rams defense has at least one takeaway in every game so far this year and has multiple takeaways in three. They ranked 5th overall in defensive scoring and going against an inconsistent quarterback in Colin Kaepernick sounds like a successful outing for the Rams.

Total Salary used: $49,700




Thursday, October 22, 2015

Don't Be That Guy

Week 6 is over and we are finally getting a grasp on who is worth keeping and who may be on their way out the door. With values rising and falling, trades start occurring more often and we start becoming more or less attached to players that we drafted.

The point of a trade is to make your team better, that part is obvious. But Trade Etiquette is something that many people lack. There are no set of rules for the way a trade should happen, but without a common set of grounds, do you know what happens? Chaos. Chaos happens. And there's nothing more dangerous in this world than a pissed off fantasy football player. Scratch that - it's really funny seeing pissed off fantasy football players, relax, it's a virtual game.

Yes, you want to get the better part of the trade, if there even is one, but don't be that guy who offers his entire bench for Aaron Rodgers. You know the deal won't get accepted, so quit. There are unwritten rules when it comes to trades:

1. Be clear. When I say clear, I mean be as clear as you can. I should be able to tell if we're trying to make a trade at this very moment or if we're just tossing around ideas for the future. Getting straight to the point means that you want this trade to happen faster than CJ Anderson's valued plummeted (too soon?). Saying something like "wanna trade LaGarrette Blount for Ronnie Hillman?" means that this trade can happen at this very moment. It's an open invitation for the recipient to either accept or deny. However, saying something like "I'm looking to ship away Randal Cobb" opens the conversation for discussion. Be clear what your intentions are, it's easy.

2. Respond. A lot of fantasy football talk happens away from your respective site. For instance, my league has a Facebook page where a majority of trade and smack talk occurs. Even if someone offers you a trade that you aren't the least bit interested in, respond. Nothing is more frustrating than when you offer someone a legitimate trade and you just don't get a response. Sure, most of us have jobs that don't revolve around fantasy football, or whatever (those are more like hobbies anyway), so it's understandable that you can't respond immediately, but if you see my message, let me know that you'll get back to me later. Even if your answer is no, just tell me that. It's okay, really, you won't hurt my feelings.

3. If you accept an offer on another medium (Facebook, texting, email, etc) then when I offer it on the website, you should accept it. The website part is just a technicality, you already told me you were going to accept, so now you have to. Be a man (or woman) of your word. There's no "oh sorry, I traded him to someone else." You accepted your trade to me on Facebook messenger, you better follow through.

4. Don't ever veto a trade, unless obvious collusion is involved. It is not your job to run other player's teams. If a trade is made, no matter how good or bad, unless collusion can be proven, it's not your place to choose whether it was a good trade or not. And if you veto a trade because it makes another team too good, please stop playing the game I love. The trade was made with both parties involved, so do your part as a good league member and just accept it. Trading is an art that needs perfected, don't be jealous that others have it and you don't. And if you are caught is collusion - yes, Mick, I've never actually met you, but I'm talking to you - you're no longer welcome in the league. Our league is sacred, and you have ruined the sanctity of our game...Goodbye.

5. We play this game for fun. More than likely, we play it with friends. Friends who we see and talk to on a regular basis. Don't lose a friend because of fantasy football, unless that person colludes, then you can kick he or she to the curb. But also, these friends are people we will have to trade with in the future. Don't ruin future chances at trades by ignoring Trade Etiquette.

It's a respect thing. If you wouldn't accept the trade if it were reversed, don't offer it.

Anyway, time for value - the value of players going forward. Some players have better value than others. Some draftees panned out and some didn't. You're probably using waiver wire adds and you've probably dropped players that you drafted; it's all part of the game.

Players who have great value going forward:

Antonio Brown: Experiencing extreme difficulties with Mike Vick at QB, Brown has Landry Jones at the helm this week. No, I don't see a rebound from Brown this week, but Big Ben will be back soon. Fantasy owners and Steelers fans rejoice. Brown finished last year as the number one receiver in fantasy and in three games this year with Big Ben, Brown has 100 yards in all three of those games and a touchdown in two. Breathe that sigh of relief.

Lamar Miller: If you're a Miller owner like me, you've been looking for alternatives...until this past Sunday. New head coach + new game plan = New Lamar Miller. Sunday, Miller saw his highest yardage total, his highest total of carries and a touchdown. Maybe it's too soon to tell, but if you bought low on Miller last week, congrats to you. If not, I recommend doing so before it's too late.

LeSean McCoy: He's baaaaack. Buffalo is having some issues at QB and with their stub RB back, they'll be leaning heavily on the run game - not that Rex Ryan didn't do that anyway. McCoy saw his highest yardage total last week, tied his season-high in carries and added a touchdown. There's no other RB in Buffalo that can do what McCoy can do. That was proven in the week that he was out. McCoy will be in the Top 15 of RB's going forward.

Doug Martin: 20 carries 106 yards 1 TD. 24 carries 123 yards 2 TDs. Those are Martin's numbers for his last two starts. The latter resulted in a win, the former came against the undefeated Carolina Panthers. Winston has been shaky, as a rookie typically is, so I look for the Dougernaut to be the focal point of the Buccaneers offense going forward. He has proven he can be the bell-cow back and I think Lovie Smith will feed him the ball.


Patience, not Panic: these are players that have not been producing as of late, but you can't drop them quite yet.

Randall Cobb: Aaron Rodger certainly loves throwing the football. James Jones currently leads the team in yards and touchdowns. The upside is that Cobb leads the team in targets by 18 and the Packers faced an injury to rookie Ty Montgomery. The Packers are on their bye this week, so I look for them to find ways to get the ball to Cobb. He specializes in the slot, which reduces his chances of goal line work, but Cobb does most of his damage between the redzones.

Eddie Lacy: The problem has to be injuries. We've seen a healthy Lacy the past two seasons and he's been a top 10 back each of those seasons. One year could be a fluke, two, not so much. The injured ankle has prevented Lacy from gaining momentum but with the Packers on a bye, that ankle should be plenty rested for the rest of the season.

Melvin Gordon: Danny Woodhead has proven his worth as not only the Charges pass-catching back, but also the goal line back. But here's my thought process on Gordon: he can't get any worse. He has the raw talent, he just has to put it together on the field.

Jordan Matthews: Matthews is the most targeted Eagle and has the most talent of any other wide receiver on the team. The problem has been consistency at quarterback and, for those of you that have watch Eagles games, Matthews has been non-existent inside the 20-yard line. Bradford almost ignores Matthews, his biggest receiver. Matthews is viable in PPR-formats, and that's about it.

Mike Evans: The build and talent that any receiver would want, the only thing holding Evans back is his quarterback. The Bucs will focus their game plan around Doug Martin more following their bye-week and if Martin proves he can handle the load, that should leave Evans in one-on-one situations.

These are players you should cut loose. See ya. Sayonara. Or, if someone wants them, trade away:

Joseph Randle: Seemingly in Jason Garret's doghouse for jumping over the goal line, Randle is now a part of a RBBC with Darren McFadden AND Christine Michael. Good luck figuring out who will get the majority of carries game in and game out.

Peyton Manning: That's right, the Peyton Manning who was once drafted in the first round of drafts in years past. Manning is QB#28 overall. He has seven touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Brian Hoyer has more points than Manning and Hoyer was benched for two games. Kirk Cousins has more points than Manning this year. Jameis Winston has more points that Manning this year. Shall I go on?

CJ Anderson: If you're still starting Anderson, you must be in a 20 team league and hoping for a miracle. Clearly the number two back behind Hillman, Anderson, who was drafted in the first round of many drafts, is now un-startable. Andre Ellington has more points than CJ Anderson and he misse three of the six games played so far.

Brandin Cooks: Cooks was drafted as a low-end WR1 or high-end WR2. Cooks is currently a WR4, only producing 40 points in six games. Torrey Smith, Willie Snead, and Pierre Garcon all have more points than Cooks does on the year.

Good luck with the reason of your season and if you're 2-4 or 1-5, start making some trades! You're still in it!

Thursday, October 15, 2015

Love/Hate Week 6

Fantasy Football is a roller coaster ride of emotions that lasts 17 weeks. When a player is doing really well, you can't get enough of him. You talk him up to your friends, maybe send a few tweets his way - you're all on board. But then there's guys you expect a lot from and get disappointed. The great football players, but maybe not-so-great fantasy football players. You know the ones I'm talking about. The tight ends that maybe have a mediocre quarterback, or the running back who was once talented behind a great offensive line, but now lingers behind a bad one.

Big weeks come and go, but what matters is consistency. Week in and week out, you want to play the players that are most consistent and that you can count on to produce points. Everyone has that one player on their bench who they rarely start, but will, on occasion, bust out four catches for 150 yards and two touchdowns. And you didn't play him for a reason - and do you know what that reason is? Because without two of the catches, that player scores I don't know, maybe 3 points?

Fantasy Football is all about predictions, but it's also all about what is most likely going to happen. Each week we go into, there are players you love and players you hate based on match-ups and previous play. This list is based off of what is most likely going to happen this week based off of the match-ups and the previous play of these players:

Love:

1. Arian Foster, RB (HOU)

I know what you're saying, "Oh, Arian Foster is a must start, why is he on this list?" "Darren, I'm obviously starting Foster if he's healthy." I know you are. You and everyone else who owns Foster is going to play him, but here's why: Last week, then man touched the ball 28 times - 19 rushed and 9 catches. This week Foster faces the 28th ranked Jacksonville Jaguars and if you're telling me that Foster is going to touch the ball 28 times against the Jags...SIGN ME UP.

2. Justin Forsett, RB (BAL)

He's finally back! Two straight 100-yard performances that included 27 and 25 touches respectively...THANK YOU FOOTBALL GODS (and that you, Little Giants, for the awesome movie quote). This week Foster faces the 27th ranked 49ers and with Steve Smith still banged up, I look for Forsett to carry the load once again for a struggling Baltimore team looking to secure their second win of the season.

3. Richard Rodgers, TE (GB)

The 25th ranked San Diego Chargers have allowed a touchdown to opposing TE's in three of the last five games and Rodgers has scored every other game so far this season. Last week he didn't score, so guess what? I think he gets into the endzone this week and continues at his "every other week" pace. And with Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball around, I'm pretty confident in the Rodgers-to-Rodgers connection.

4. TY Hilton, WR (IND)

Aside from Dez Bryant and Alshon Jeffrey (both injured for much of the first five weeks), TY Hilton is the only top-10-drafted WR to not record a 100-yard performance OR have a touchdown. The Colts face the 21st ranked New England Patriots with a possible Andrew Luck return, I expect TY Hilton to finally get his first touchdown of the season.

5. Travis Kelce, TE (KC)

The Jamaal Charles injury is devastating to the Chiefs as a team, but it's amazing to the stock of Kelce. Andy Reid loves to run the football, so that will still be a large part of the offense, but a heavy part will be Alex Smith throwing the football, which is probably scary to Chiefs fans. But KC if playing the 22nd ranked Minnesota Vikings who have given up with 90 yards or a touchdown in three of the four games they've played so far. Kelce is a top-5 TE the rest of the season.

Hate:

1. CJ Anderson, RB (DEN)

Yes, I too drafted Anderson in the 1st Round of more than one draft. Yes, I too am stuck with him on my bench. What's a guy to do with a 1st-rounder who hasn't posted more than six points in a single game or cracked the 50-yard mark in any game yet? You bench him, that's what. You bench him; you hope that he scores a goal line touchdown or two; you sell high on him. That's my plan and it should be yours as well. Last week Anderson had 31 snaps vs. Ronnie Hillman's 20. Cleveland is a good match-ups for running backs, so I assume this will be Anderson's last chance to make a mark in the fantasy world.

2. Lamar Miller, RB (MIA)

A new head coach in town should bode well for Miller, just not this week. Facing the 6th ranked Titans defense, a defense that hasn't given up 100 yards in a game yet, doesn't bode well for a running back who hasn't posted more than 60 yards yet this season. The future could be brighter for Miller, but for this week, he's a hope and a prayer away from double digit fantasy points.

3. Charles Clay, TE (BUF)

Tyrod Taylor is hurt and that spells trouble for the Buffalo Bills. Not only does it hurt the Bills' chance of winning games, but it hurts Clay's value on fantasy teams. Clay has been the only dependable receiver in Buffalo but playing the 4th ranked Bengals who haven't given up a touchdown to tight ends yet this season, and losing his starting quarterback doesn't sound like a good match-up to me. EJ Manuel could and should rely heavily upon his big target in the middle of the field, but this week just isn't the week for Clay.

4. Jimmy Graham, TE (SEA)

You saw this coming, right? Right? The trade to Seattle sealed his fate as a top fantasy star. Jimmy Graham is facing the Carolina Panthers defense. Here's a stat for you: the Panthers defense has only allowed 1 touchdown all year. Here's a better stat for you: the Panthers defense has only allowed 86 yards to tight ends ALL YEAR - 0, 26, 52, and 8 yards respectively given up in each of the 4 game they've played.

5. Isaiah Crowell, RB (CLE)

Crowell has all but lost the receiving duties to Duke Johnson. Jr. The Browns face a stout Denver defense who has surprisingly been the reason for Denver's wins this year. I expect the Broncos to pull ahead in this game, forcing the Browns to pass, pass, pass, leaving much of the snaps leaning in the favor of Duke Johnson. The Broncos defense is one of the best in the league, so I look for the Browns offense to struggle mightily in this one.



Thursday, October 8, 2015

Top Free Agent Adds for Week 5

We're 25% through the season. The one-quarter mark! Some of your draft picks have panned out and some...well some have made you want to pull your hair out. With bye-weeks upon us, more waiver wire and free agency adds will be used and players will come and go from your roster. This is a list of players that are owned in 50% of leagues or less and NEED to be stashed on your roster:

1. Leonard Hankerson, WR (ATL)                                           Owned in 38.3%

Hankerson is easily my #1 add this week. I have added him in 3 leagues, 2 of which I'm starting him in. He has surpassed Roddy White as the #2 receiver on a potent Atlanta Falcons offense and with Julio Jones attracting so much attention, it leaves Hankerson with one-on-ones and open looks in the slot. Hankerson has twice as many target as Roddy White does and is a more trusted asset to Matt Ryan at this point. Hankerson has two touchdowns this season, one of which, last week, coming along with a 100 yard performance. Hankerson will be a consistent play and should be owned in all 10-team leagues.

2. Allen Hurns, WR (JAX)                                                       Owned in 32.6%

Hurns has two straight games with a touchdown and has quietly become the most targeted receiver in Jacksonville. Robinson has a far and away better catch rate than his more popular teammate Allen Robinson (73.3% to 37.5%). He also had 11 receptions last week, which shouldn't go unnoticed in the Jaguars coaching staff. Robinson will continue to draw looks from defenses, which should open up the field for Hurns. Averaging 6 catches/game, Hurns should be a guy that is, at the very least, waiting on your bench.

3. Darren McFadden, RB (DAL)                                              Owned in 49.2%

Lance Dunbar is out for the season. Joseph Randle is in the doghouse after being deliberately told NOT to jump over the goal line in order to score a touchdown and then doing it anyway (but he got the TD, so who cares, right? That's my opinion). McFadden will take over the pass-catching role that was Dunbar's and seems to be taking a bit of a chunk out of Randle's role. Randle didn't record a carry in the 4th quarter last week vs. New Orleans. It will still be a committee, but McFadden will have a larger role than he did before.

4. Josh McCown, QB (CLE)                                                       Owned in 2.8%

In a 2-QB league, McCown can be a starter. That's right! A starter! McCown has two straight 300-yard 2-touchdown games. In a year that most people, including myself, thought that Manziel would be the starter by now, McCown is doing his best to keep the starting role. How long will that starting role last? Who knows. McCown is 0-3 in his starts this year. The Browns lone win came with Manziel at the helm. But, fantasy football is all about stats and that's what McCown is producing.

5. Gary Barnidge, TE (CLE)                                                      Owned in 24.1%

Another player that I have added in a league, Barnidge has two straight games with six catches and a touchdown - 100 yards and 75 yards respectively. With McCown playing well, Barnidge is reaping the benefits. Or maybe it's the other way around? Maybe McCown is playing well because he has a 6'6 250 lbs Tight End who can run a 4.6 40-yard-dash. My money is on Barnidge. He's a great stash and he's a great bye-week fill in. I have Greg Olsen on a bye this week and I picked up Barnidge to fill his spot. Yes, he's playing Baltimore, the team that's ranked #1 against the position, but a guy of that frame and talent has to bust through this Terrell Suggs-less defense.

Thursday, October 1, 2015

It's Time to Move On

It happens every year. We talk up some big names in the preseason. We predict just how perfect of a season they're going to have and then BAM! They put up a goose egg. The big ol' 0. No points! But do you know what's worse then 0 points? 1 point. Like, really, 1 point? C'mon. That means you had a chance, it was there...but then it disappeared. At least a 0 means the player wasn't given a chance, but a 1? A 1 shows absolute disappoint.

The goal is to draft a guy, a guy that was predicted to do wonderful, magical things for the fantasy world. A #1 RB. Someone who was supposed to carry the load for the entire season, but then, something tragic happens. Another RB comes is and starts to take carries from the guy you drafted. That's right....it becomes a Running Back By Committee. An RBBC, if you will - a dangerous zone.

Alright, back on track, sorry! Anyway:

It's about that time. Week 4 is rolling around and we are approaching the 25% mark on the season. We've had a small look at who is playing well and who has been lagging behind. Some players are worse off than others *cough cough CJ Anderson* and others may just be hitting stride.

Some players are everything you've ever asked for. They've produced some double-digit games, maybe a few touchdowns, and you're feeling great about where you drafted them.

Other players...man, other players just beat you down. You feel defeated. You feel like you've lost. So this is for them. Sometimes, it's time to move on. Note that "it's time to move on" doesn't always mean this player should be dropped. It does mean, however, that they need taken out of your lineup until they prove their worth.

1. CJ Anderson, RB (DEN)

He was taken in the first or second round of drafts this year. Last year he ranked RB11 overall and so far this year, he ranks RB68. His highest scoring game was 3 points and he has failed to reach more than 30 rushing yards or 12 attempts in any game. Ronnie Hillman is splitting carries with him and with how pitiful Denver's rushing offense has been, I'd rather not own either back. I know you've wasted a high draft pick on him, but if you can trade him for even a flex play, do so. I'm sorry CJ Anderson owners but...It's time to move on.






2. Andre Johnson, WR (IND)

If you're like most of the fantasy football world, Andre Johnson going to Indianapolis excited you. Sure, Johnson didn't play well last year, but he had to deal with three different QB's throughout the year. Yes, he's an aging WR, but Andrew Luck will bring the youth out in him. He'll be the #2 WR in
a high potent offense. Andrew Luck has thrown more INT's than TD's (7 to 5), and the Colts offense has been questionable at best. Johnson is the #4 WR on the team and rarely sees the field. He put up the dreaded ZERO score last week and Andre Johnson owners...It's time to move on.



3. Alfred Morris, RB (WASH)

Morris was drafted at a Round 3 or 4 price tag, expected to be the RB2 he's been for the past three years. He finished at RB#12 last year and currently sits as RB#29. But Darren, we're only 3 games in, RB#29 isn't that bad for 3 games, right? Well, yes little blog reader, you would normally be correct, but Matt Jones has been taking more and more carries from Morris and has showed to be the more elusive pass catcher. In a Washington offense that is less than potent, Morris is on a slow ship out. While he maintains the goal line duties, Morris has progressively
lost touches as the games go on. I personally, am playing Karlos Williams in place of Morris this week. Shady McCoy isn't projected to play and Williams has looked awesome with the touches he has had. Alfred Morris owners...It's time to move on.



4. DeMarco Murray, RB (PHI)

Finished at the #1 RB in fantasy last year, there was speculation if Murray could withstand a heavy workload and a new team. After gaining just 11 yard in 2 games, Murray has proved to me that he will not be worth the 2nd Round price tag he was drafted as. He is currently RB#34 and the future
doesn't look too promising with an emerging Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles taking the lead in receptions from the backfield. DeMarco Murray owners, I'm sorry, but...It's time to move on.



5. Brandin Cooks, WR (NO)

Unable to produce a TD or a 100 yard performance yet, Cooks has not lived up to his 3rd Round price tag. He finished 2014 as WR#57, but that's due to missing the last 6 games of the season due to injury. He is currently positioned as WR#48, but as long as Brees is out, so should Cooks. Brandin
Cooks owners...It's time to move on...until Drew Brees returns.